Beaucoup d’optimisme, peu de confiance dans l’accord Hamas-Fatah

Beaucoup d’optimisme, peu de confiance dans l’accord Hamas-Fatah

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C’est avec une hâte presque inconvenante que le Fatah et le Hamas, les deux principales factions palestiniennes, ont annoncé avoir conclu un accord préalable d’unité au Caire le 12 octobre, après deux jours de négociations. L’accord a été accueilli en fanfare. Mahmoud Abbas, chef du Fatah et de l’Autorité palestinienne, l’a appelé « une déclaration de la fin de la division et un retour à l’unité nationale palestinienne. » « Nous avons ouvert la porte à cette réconciliation, » a dit Saleh Arouri, chef de la délégation du Hamas au Caire.

Les Gazaouis sont descendus en masse dans les rues de Gaza pour célébrer l’annonce avec l’espoir que l’accord apporterait à la bande côtière démunie un véritable changement qui empêcherait le désastre humanitaire majeur prédit depuis longtemps.

Obstacles et optimisme

Mais de réels obstacles demeurent, et il faut se garder de tout optimisme quant à la réalisation d’une avancée. Ce n’est pas le premier accord conclu en 10 ans, depuis 2007, quand le Hamas a expulsé les forces du Fatah de Gaza. En fait, il y en a eu quatre, qui ont finalement disparu dans de mutuelles récriminations : La Mecque (2007), Le Caire (2011), Doha (2012) et Gaza et Le Caire (2014). Il y eut également la Déclaration de Sanaa en 2008 et l’Accord du Caire de 2012.

Quelques-uns des problèmes qui ont empêché la résolution des désaccords précédents ont été abordés cette fois. La question du paiement de quelques 40 000 fonctionnaires embauchés après que le Hamas ait chassé les forces du Fatah et les rémunérations versées par l’AP à d’anciens fonctionnaires pour qu’ils restent à la maison étaient parmi ces points de friction. En vertu de l’accord annoncé hier, l’AP a accepté de payer la moitié de leurs salaires, ce qui équivaut à ce qu’ils perçoivent maintenant, dans l’attente de la vérification de leurs qualifications.

Quelques 3.000 agents de sécurité du Fatah doivent rejoindre la police de Gaza, comme première étape de reprise du contrôle de Gaza par l’AP. De plus, la garde présidentielle palestinienne doit assumer la responsabilité des points de passage de Gaza vers Israël et l’Egypte, avec supervision de l’EUBAM, agence des frontières de l’Union Européenne, à Rafah.

Mais il n’y a aucune décision quant à ce qu’il faut faire avec l’aile militaire du Hamas, estimée à environ 25 000 hommes. La semaine dernière, Abbas a appelé le Hamas a déposé les armes, une demande qui ne sera vraisemblablement pas satisfaite. Ce qui signifie que le contrôle sécuritaire du Fatah sur Gaza, du moins à court terme, sera de pure forme.

Israël le saboteur

Il n’y a aussi aucun accord sur un programme politique global, une question qui pourrait s’avérer problématique si l’acteur le plus important dans cette équation, Israël, traîne des pieds.

La réponse israélienne n’a pas été prometteuse.

« Israël examinera les développements sur le terrain et agira en conséquence, » a déclaré le gouvernement israélien en guise de réponse, prévenant que tout accord de réconciliation doit inclure le respect des conditions du Quartet énoncées dans la Feuille de Route pour la paix de 2003, qui incluent une reconnaissance du « droit d’Israël à exister » et la fin de la résistance armée.

Alors que la nouvelle charte du Hamas a ouvert la voie à une reconnaissance de facto d’Israël, appelant « consensus national » la création d’un Etat palestinien sur les lignes d’armistice de 1949 et le retour des réfugiés, elle « rejette toute alternative à la libération pleine et entière de la Palestine, de la rivière à la mer. »

De plus, la résistance armée à une occupation militaire est inscrite dans le droit international et est également revendiquée par le Hamas comme « choix stratégique pour la protection des principes et des droits du peuple palestinien. »

Le Hamas pourrait bien mettre en œuvre un cessez-le-feu à long terme – ce qu’il fait depuis 2014 – mais c’est probablement le plus loin qu’il puisse aller, et on ne sait pas si cela sera suffisant pour Israël.

Intérêts égyptiens

Le Caire a joué un rôle clé et a de nombreux intérêts en jeu. Le Caire veut enrôler le Hamas dans ses efforts pour réprimer une insurrection du Sinaï qui a résisté à des mesures militaires draconiennes.

Le déploiement de l’armée dans la Péninsule du Sinaï prive de ressources précieuses une armée engagée en Libye – dont la guerre civile, qui en est maintenant à sa sixième année, est considérée par Le Caire comme une menace directe pour la sécurité nationale. Il freine une économie dont la croissance récente a été largement tirée par l’investissement public et qui a vu son important secteur touristique s’effondrer à mesure que le nombre de touristes dans le pays dégringolait.

Le Hamas s’est montré un partenaire consentant, même s’il rejette les accusations égyptiennes selon lesquelles il a activement encouragé les militants du Sinaï. Les forces de sécurité de Gaza ont commencé à déminer une zone tampon à Rafah, le long de la frontière de Gazaavec l’Egypte, pour empêcher le trafic des armes et le passage des personnes. Le Hamas a également arrêté des militants salafistes à Gazaet il est lui-même devenu une cible pour des activistes puisque très récemment, en août, un de ses officiers a été tué dans un attentat suicide dans la zone frontalière avec l’Egypte.

Mais le Sinaï n’est pas la seule priorité du Caire. L’Egypte essaie d’améliorer sa position régionale, minée par le bouleversement et le bain de sang de la révolution de 2011 et le coup d’Etat militaire de 2013. Un accord d’unité réussi sera une victoire diplomatique importante pour le Caire. Cela peut convaincre Washington – où le Congrès des Etats-Unis retient quelques 95 millions de dollars d’aide et retarde 195 autres millions de dollars à cause du dossier égyptien sur les droits de l’homme, y compris les accusations d’abus dans le Sinaï – que le Caire reste un acteur crucial dans la région, et donc un partenaire important pour les intérêts états-uniens, un statut dont il a bénéficié pendant des décennies jusqu’au renversement de Hosni Moubarak.

Alléger le blocus

Le succès de tout accord dépendra des mesures que l’Egypte est prête à prendre pour alléger le blocus de Gaza. Sans ouverture pour les biens et les personnes, il n’y a aucune raison pour le Hamas de faire des compromis et aucun avantage pour Gaza.

C’est seulement alors que les 5,4 milliards de dollars promis par les gouvernements pour reconstruire la bande côtière ruinée après l’assaut israélien de 2014 commenceront à faire la différence.

Le Caire semble sérieux. Non seulement c’est le seul moyen de s’assurer que le Hamas coopère sur le Sinaï, mais les efforts déployés par le Caire pour rapprocher le Fatah et le Hamas avaient en partie pour objectif d’obtenir l’aval de l’AP pour cette ouverture. Un accord antérieur avec Mohammad Dahlan, ancien chef de la sécurité de Gaza, ennemi juré du Hamas et rival de longue date d’Abbas, n’aurait pas fourni cette couverture mais aurait probablement servi de levier sur le Fatah dans les négociations. Abbas ne voulait surtout pas que Dahlan réintègre la politique palestinienne à travers Gaza et le Hamas, l’Egypte et les Emirats Arabes Unis, qui avaient promis de financer cet accord.

Israël pourrait bien refuser l’accord. Son blocus a empêché la reconstruction de centaines de milliers de maisons et autres bâtiments endommagés ou détruits par son armée au cours de trois assauts meurtriers, et rendu les services publics essentiels au bord de l’effondrement, laissant Gaza au risque d’une catastrophe humanitaire dont l’ONU a averti qu’elle pourrait laisser la bande inhabitable d’ici trois ans.

Le dirigeant égyptien Abdulfattah al-Sissi suit sa propre voie, sur différentes questions, en fonction de ce qu’il considère être l’intérêt de son pays.

Il a rompu avec Riyad sur la Syrie en 2015, même si l’Arabie saoudite et d’autres pays étaient d’importants bailleurs de fonds des pays du Golfe dans les années après 2013, date du coup d’Etat d’Al-Sisi contre Muhammad Morsi, du parti des Frères Musulmans, élu démocratiquement en 2013. Et il s’est rapproché de Moscou, tandis que les relations avec les Etats-Unis ont tourné à l’aigre sous Barack Obama.

« C’est moi que tu regardes ? »

Néanmoins, le Caire n’ira pas jusqu’à défier Israël et beaucoup dépendra de ce qui se passe sur le terrain. Le Hamas est susceptible de faire un effort supplémentaire pour que l’accord reste en vigueur. Il a été affaibli par la perte de son sponsor le plus important lorsque les pays du Golfe ont tenté d’isoler le Qatar et il a vu Gaza souffrir non seulement de trois attaques militaires israéliennes dévastatrices mais des sanctions imposées par l’Autorité palestinienne de Ramallah.

Abbas, quant à lui, n’a pas grand-chose à son actif. Obstinément engagé dans un processus de paix dont il était le principal architecte mais qui a amené de petites mais nouvelles colonies israéliennes dans les territoires occupés, le dirigeant octogénaire est probablement à la fin de son parcours. Un accord d’unité réussi pourrait juste le remettre en selle pour un dernier coup de poignard aux négociations et garantirait également que Dahlan soit tenu à l’écart de l’équation un peu plus longtemps.

Mais si la faiblesse des deux côtés fournit un terrain d’entente, la confiance mutuelle reste faible. Et là où le Hamas est isolé, l’AP d’Abbas dépend largement des financements des Etats-Unis et de l’Union européenne, ce qui donne aux deux bords une pression excessive.

Non seulement les Etats-Unis et l’UE considèrent le Hamas comme une organisation terroriste, mais l’administration américaine actuelle n’a rien dit ou fait jusqu’à présent qui dévie fortement ou même légèrement de l’orthodoxie pro-Israël de Washington.

Et même si tous ces écueils potentiels peuvent être surmontés, tout progrès vers une réconciliation durable peut à tout moment être annulé par Israël.

Cette semaine, l’avertissement d’un général en chef israélien, qui a dit que l’escalade résulterait probablement d’ « actions provocatrices » des combattants du Hamas dirigeant des pointeurs au laser sur les soldats israéliens – sûrement l’équivalent militaire de la raillerie « c’est moi que tu regardes ? » d’un ivrogne dans un bar – montre juste combien cela pourrait arriver facilement.

Omar Karmi

Omar Karmi est un ancien correspondant du journal The National à Jérusalem et à Washington, DC.

Source : The Electronic Intifada

Traduction : MR pour ISM

Photo: Saleh Arouri, du Hamas (à gauche) et Azzam al-Ahmad, du Fatah, signent un accord de réconciliation nationale le 12 octobre, au Caire (APA images)

via : http://www.ism-france.org/analyses/Beaucoup-d-optimisme-peu-de-confiance-dans-l-accord-Hamas-Fatah-article-20422

Lire aussi :

Qui y a-t-il derrière la nouvelle charte du Hamas ?

Derrière les fronts : résistances et résilience en Palestine

Les vraies raisons pour lesquelles Trump quitte l’UNESCO

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