La campagne de Kirkuk mènera-t-elle à un changement de régime au Kurdistan?

La campagne de Kirkuk mènera-t-elle à un changement de régime au Kurdistan?

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Par Andrew KORYBKO

Le gouvernement fédéral irakien a entamé une intervention militaire dans la ville riche en pétrole de Kirkouk, occupée par les Kurdes.

Cette zone a longtemps été contestée entre les autorités centrales irakiennes et le gouvernement régional kurde du nord de l’Irak et l’article 140 de la « constitution » imposée par les États-Unis après 2003 décrétait qu’un référendum aurait dû avoir lieu ici avant 2008. Un tel vote n’a jamais eu lieu en raison de la situation sécuritaire désastreuse du pays et des priorités mal calculées à l’époque, mais la ville revendiquée par les Kurdes participait à un référendum différent le mois dernier quand ses habitants avaient voté pour l’indépendance vis-à-vis de l’Irak. Les forces militaires kurdes, ou Peshmerga, ont occupé Kirkuk en 2014 après avoir chassé de la ville l’organisation Daech, qui l’avait elle-même conquise après en avoir expulsé l’armée irakienne peu de temps auparavant. Bagdad a déclaré que le vote était illégal, alors que Erbil déclare qu’il donnait aux Kurdes le droit de négocier l’indépendance vis-à-vis de l’Irak, soulignant qu’ils voudraient le faire le plus pacifiquement possible.

Selon la Constitution irakienne, les décisions des Kurdes sont illégales. C’est pourquoi le Premier ministre Abadi leur a demandé à plusieurs reprises au cours du dernier mois d’inverser la voie de l’indépendance, de permettre le retour des forces fédérales dans leur région et de remettre Kirkouk au pouvoir du gouvernement central. Les Kurdes ont refusé de le faire, ce qui explique que l’armée irakienne ait reçu l’ordre de prendre la ville contestée dans le cadre d’une opération en grande partie non violente, mais que les Kurdes ont qualifiée de «déclaration de guerre». À l’heure actuelle, la situation est très tendue, car les forces fédérales hésitent à pénétrer sur le territoire formel du gouvernement régional kurde par crainte que cela ne provoque une guerre civile totale, mais elles doivent néanmoins y rétablir leur présence si elles veulent espérer arrêter la sécession des Kurdes.

C’est dans ce contexte qu’il est pertinent de mentionner que l’Irak a probablement coordonné sa réponse avec ses voisins turcs et iraniens, qui affrontent également leurs propres séparatistes kurdes armés. Aucun de ces trois Etats ne veut créer la fausse impression qu’ils sont en train de mener une «guerre contre les Kurdes» et ils n’ont pas non plus l’intention de lancer une occupation trilatérale arabo-turque-iranienne du territoire kurde dans le nord de l’Irak, car ce serait difficilement soutenable d’un point de vue militaire. Au lieu de cela, ce qu’ils cherchent à faire dans le pire des cas, c’est de procéder à un «changement de régime» dans la région en évinçant les séparatistes et en les remplaçant par des «fédéralistes» amis de Bagdad jusqu’à ce que de nouvelles élections puissent être tenues par le gouvernement régional kurde, auxquelles les forces pro-indépendance ne pourront pas participer contrairement à celles qui sont prévues pour le 1er novembre.

Il est très possible que le résultat final de cet effort puisse voir le monopole politique de la famille Barzani sur le Kurdistan irakien rompu une fois pour toutes, ce qui pourrait annoncer une toute nouvelle ère pour la région et changer de nombreux partenariats internationaux qui ont été négociés par ce clan puissant.

Source : https://orientalreview.org/2017/10/17/will-the-kirkuk-campaign-lead-to-regime-change-in-kurdistan/

Traduction : Avic – Réseau International

 

Lire aussi :

La fin de Daech approche, mais une nouvelle phase des guerres du Moyen-Orient vient d’être enclenchée avec le référendum kurde

Kirkouk repris aux Peshmerga. Barzani et ses sponsors ont perdu leur pari

Kurdistan et le voile de mensonges

200 000 Israéliens attendus au « Kurdistan » dès la proclamation de l’indépendance

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